Bean Ball

This is part two of a series covering my experience with playing fantasy baseball this summer. The first part is linked here.

First, a few notes about the league before I outline the strategy I settled on. This is an 8-person league with head-to-head matchups (H2H) and uses the ESPN fantasy baseball points system. I advocated heavily for implementing categories or a roto-style, but I was outnumbered. We play one opponent every week, but also play a game against the league average. That is to say, if you score in the top 4 teams for points in that week, you are guaranteed to at least go 1-1, even if you lose your matchup. It was a snake draft, and I had the sixth overall pick, so the third overall pick in even rounds. The roster is constructed of 9 starters (general outfield designation), an infielder, two utilities, 7 pitching slots, and 7 bench spots, as well as 3 IL slots. With this in mind, let us begin. 

After I had mourned the Yankees’ failure to win a World Series and given myself a break from baseball, I began a preliminary dive into players I liked for 2026. When I began to list these players I had pictured on my fantasy baseball team, my friends began to laugh at me. While they were good baseball players, I quickly came to learn that they were not great in fantasy. To me, this was the greatest challenge, as it made me believe that players are as good in fantasy as they are in real life. For example, Matt Olson is a great baseball player whom I would build a roster around. Yet, in fantasy baseball, his value is diminished because every strikeout is worth -1 point, or equally as bad as a single is good. The preposterousness of this still baffles me, and it forced me to adapt and avoid players that I like a lot and think could be really good. So with that, let me dive into the players I wanted and how I came upon them.

I primarily use FanGraphs and Baseball Savant because I believe that these two sources can paint a picture of what a player did last year and how that can lead to success this year. On FanGraphs, I built my leaderboard on stats from 2024-2025, with these stats sorting players: PA, HR, BB%, K%, Bat Speed, Max Exit Velocity (maxEV), Pull%, O-Swing%, and Z-Swing%. The last two used the new ABS-system stats, which I think are the best way to project for this year, given that it will be implemented. I can quickly group these stats by a few ideas. 

Plate appearances allowed me to garner a better sense of how big a sample I was working with for these players, as well as identify players whom I liked but could potentially be blocked by playing time or injury. Home runs were a simple baseline for production, especially when I was looking at pure outcome baselines in combination with Pull%, and players who could hit more home runs this upcoming year. wRC+ also served as a primary outcome measure, and one I value more. Bat speed and maxEV were also major power predictors for me, and unless a player did other things particularly well, I wanted 45th percentile or higher in both of these, ideally. Again, I used Pull% here to better project for players who I believe could increase their power outputs (I will use this space to advocate for FanGraphs to add a PullAir% to the free custom leaderboard). 

The final group was the group I used as the baseline the most, and it is all built upon the idea of selective aggression at the plate. Baseball Prospectus has an article and stat called SEAGER dedicated to this concept, named after Corey Seager, and it was a focal point in players I wanted on my team. While I did not use that particular stat for a majority of my research (though I do recommend it heavily – this stemmed mainly from convenience), K% and BB% are outcome stats that I used to understand where the player was, and I wanted to see O-Swing% and Z-Swing% to project what they could be for this season.I wanted to see about a 45-50% difference between O-Swing and Z-Swing, though I was generally less interested in players with high O-Swing and high Z-Swing, even if they had high contact rates. While I do think this approach can lead to success, I find it to be a little riskier due to the potential decrease in quality of contact. From this, I began to build out some hitters I liked for 2026. 

I am going to go position by position, and I am only going to list players that I considered drafting, given a variety of things. This is not a position ranking. It instead values multiple factors, including what I knew managers in my league might do and the draft position of the players. 

Catcher

At catcher, there were a few players I liked. I did not want to draft at the top of the board unless they fell, but neither Cal Raleigh nor William Contreras did that. Instead, one of my favorite players was a target – Ben Rice. Yes, it was slightly fandom-influenced, but I do believe in his abilities. His ability to play 1B and catcher was very valuable to me as well. He was a must-draft for me. I liked Hunter Goodman down the board, though strikeouts were a concern there, and if I missed out on those, Austin Wells or Ryan Jeffers were boring but solid picks. I also wanted to walk out with one of Carter Jensen or Samuel Basallo, with a lean towards Jensen because I see more room for playing time there.

1B

At 1B, I was flexible because I was confident that Ben Rice would be on my team. I was willing to shop in lower rounds and play a higher priority on other players. Players such as Nick Kurtz and Matt Olson were interesting but strikeouts scared me out of both as well as their high ADP, coupled with some managers in my league being infatuated with Kurtz in particular. Instead, I liked Vinnie Pasquintino, Spencer Torkelson, and Michael Busch as later options who I would be happy with if they fell. Sal Stewart was a young player that intrigued me as well, with high exit velos and a cup o’ coffee in the bigs last year. 

2B

Second base was shaping up to be a weaker position, and my plan was to just sit back and wait for one. I did not want Ketel Marte at the top of the draft, simply because I think other players could be better. Jazz Chisholm Jr. was interesting, especially as a Yankees fan, and depending on when I could get him, I felt fine drafting him. However, I planned to target later round guys such as Gleyber Torres, Brandon Lowe, and Brendan Donovan, all of whom had high floors even without a ton of upside. If Jackson Holliday had not had surgery, he would have been a player I selected later. His plate discipline profile is pretty good, and I believe(d) that his batted ball data could tick up, but the hamate bone slowed my hype train down. 

3B

Third base posed an interesting duality. Some members of my league deemed it underwhelming, but I think that there is talent; it’s more about finding the ones that will perform in 2026. It also housed the star player I was lowest on going into the year and the sleeper I felt best about. I will start with my hottest take going into this season: I am out on Jose Ramirez for 2026. I will add a caveat quickly before explaining why. I think he will still be solid (110-120 wRC+, with some power and steals), but I have concerns about anything more than that. He has already been operating at below average bat speed, with a tick down last year from 71.6 to 70.9 last year (which may seem small but is actually not), and age 32 is the fall off for that metric. This led to a decrease in his maxEV last year as well, dropping 5 mph to 111.6, as well as a tick down in average exit velocity. He has made up for it by pulling the bar in the air more, but at a certain point, I think that there are some trade-offs with this. So JRam in the third or fourth round, sure. In the first round? I am out. Maikel Garcia is really good, but I think he may be overdrafted in points leagues with hope for more out of that bat, so I was happy shopping in the next tier. Manny Macado and Austin Riley both make really good swing decisions and possess good bat speed and maxEV, so I was happy to buy them at the lower price due to their recent worse results. Isaac Paredes and Brett Baty fascinated me, but I was worried about either of them finding consistent plate appearances. I had two players I liked who I felt confident I could get down the board. First, Kazuma Okamoto, the recent Japanese transfer who now plays for the Blue Jays, boasts good contact skills. Then, my sleeper player of the year is Miguel Vargas. Vargas makes great swing decisions and will have a long runway playing for the Chicago White Sox. He has also been given the starting job at third this year after flipping between first and third the year before, with Munetaka Murakami holding down the other corner now. I think an increase in comfort and another year of development could lead to some better batted ball data (his bat speed could use a tick up from 70.6, and his maxEV is not horrible at 110.8, but I would like to see some more). If I could not get the other guys at prices I liked, then I would be happy rolling out a combination of those two and Sal Stewart as my third baseman. 

SS

At shortstop, after multiple conversations with people in my league, it seemed as if, for some unknown reason, Bobby Witt Jr. would be there for me at 1.6. If that was the case, I would have taken him quickly and moved on. If my information was wrong and people changed their draft plans, then I would punt to later in the draft and target a value player such as Zach Neto. Depending on the reaction of leaguemates to Francisco Lindor’s injury, I was also considering taking him. 

OF

Outfield is the position I trusted myself the most in. In the first round, there was a chance I could take Ronald Acuna Jr. or Kyle Tucker in round 1. Acuna was a little risky for me. The injuries, the crazy high BABIP in 2025, and the potential of him converting to only DH all leaned against taking him. Tucker was intriguing to me, and I felt that if he were there, I would take him. I like him in Dodger Stadium (the most homerun-friendly park in baseball, according to Baseball Savant), and his swing decisions are elite. His batted ball data, particularly exit velocities and bat speed, were slightly concerning, but I have also seen him succeed with those same underlying metrics for years. Injuries concerned me there as well, especially knowing that the Dodgers seem to give their players ample time to recover if they get hurt midseason. I was determined to take an outfielder in round 2, as two guys struck me as potential 145 wRC+ or higher candidates: Corbin Carroll and Fernando Tatis Jr. Both players presented interesting underlying metrics. Carroll demonstrated a higher K% last year, but I think some positive regression is due there. His batted ball numbers all ticked up last year, especially maxEV, and I thought that posed an interesting potential for even more power than the 31 HR he hit last year. Yet, Tatis continued to intrigue me. His swing decisions were spectacular last year, and I think there is still plenty of power potential in his bat, even post PED suspension. The choice between the two of them was going to be difficult for me. After that, I really liked Wyatt Langford as a player to take a little bit later, as he has crazy potential. Byron Buxton and Tyler Soderstrom were two players I believed to be going later than I thought they should, and I wanted both on my team. James Wood, Pete Crow Armstrong, and Jac Caglianone were all intriguing young players whom I liked, but the first two were going way too high for my liking, and I felt comfortable getting Caglianone at the end of the draft. Some stable players who I liked were targets for me as well, with Trent Grisham, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Harris II, and Ramon Laureano all posing interesting options to me, all with their own drawbacks. 

DH

Finally, utility/DH. Kyle Schwarber was a player I liked, but did not want at the price I knew he would go at. Brent Rooker offered a similar profile at a much lower price, so he was very high on my board. George Springer’s 2025 may seem like an outlier, but after further research, I actually think it could be somewhat repeatable. Not 166 wRC+, but 130 seems well within the range of outcomes. Plus, he is at a lower price than the two above him. Finally, some players I liked lower and thought I could take a bit of a risk on were Willson Contreras and Mike Trout, both of whom provide a large amount of upside this year. Contreras may not be perceived as good of a hitter as his younger brother, but the switch to Fenway Park and his increase in pulling the ball in the air both tell me that he could have a great season. Mike Trout saw more swing and miss in his profile last season, and health obviously is a concern, but I think that overall the upside is really high. If I need a bat later in the draft, I will take one of them. 

So those are the hitters I liked going into the draft. I was planning on doing pitchers, but sadly, my life as a student is becoming a pressing matter, at least for the rest of the night. Plus, this was really long, so not a bad idea to cut it off. I’ll do pitching later this week (maybe). Until next time.